Central Virginia Winter Weather Forecasts with John Bernier — Virginia

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — It’s time now for my 39thu annual winter outlook for central Virginia.

Hidden away for days – had to remember where I hid it from everyone – it’s time to reveal how I predict the winter will turn out for us.

We’ll stay away from the huge technical talk you see all over the web and focus on the big factors for you.

First, this is ours thirdcorrectly third consecutive winter with the cool La Niña ocean current off the west coast of Peru. The saying from the First World War was that “three in one match” meant bad luck – and that’s probably true this year for snow lovers.

In a year like this – and similar to the previous two – the Jet Stream makes its big splash in the middle of the country. This does not bode well for snow in the area, in fact, ice may seem like a problem what we saw in 2021.

If the timing is right, we have a chance of snow. It’s just that the chances will be limited.

Unlike the last two years, when we saw an “extended fall” and had significant heat in November and December, we saw an early cold snap this year. This is reminiscent of 1988 and 1989, when winter was front-loading and essentially over by New Year’s. Our friends in Buffalo got a lot of that cold front with 80 inches of snow last weekend!

When you look at weather conditions, they often run on a 6-10 week cycle. If that’s the case, we’re in for a turnaround sometime early next year. This would light the furnace of nature for us. On the flip side, it could lead to a quick start to Spring in March.

Now, I will warn you, there is a wild card in all of this. This huge volcanic eruption in Tonga earlier this year? Well, it dumped moisture into the Stratosphere – some of which has reached the Northern Hemisphere. That the humidity has the potential make things a little weird up there, which in turn could make things unpredictable – maybe even cause a polar vortex like eight years ago.

Well, the gist of it all looks like this:

  • Temperatures average 0.4°F above normal – and yes, it will be cold at times.
  • Snow will range from 7.5 inches to 9 inches, but we need at least a decent storm!
  • Given that December could be cool for a while, we have about a 13% chance of a ‘White Christmas’.
  • I worry about severe weather outbreaks starting in February.

We’ll just have to wait and see how it all pans out.