Utah State vs. Boise State odds, tips, predictions ‘ Utah

Utah State vs Boise State odds

The Utah State Aggies roll to Boise on a heater. Their 35-31 win over San Jose State last week earned them bowl eligibility and took them to a season-high of three wins. The Aggies started the season just 1-4 but have since turned things around, winning five of their last six games.

Utah State is playing its best football of the season, but it might not be enough to defeat the Broncos. Call it a rivalry if you will, but it wasn’t a competition.

Boise State leads the all-time streak 21-5 and has won 18 of the last 19. The Aggies have not won a game in the series since 2015 and have not won in Boise since 1996.

Sure, they’re playing good ball right now – but are they good enough to end this losing streak? The odds makers don’t believe that as Utah State enters as a 16-point underdog.

Yes, the Aggies won games. But look at the teams they beat:

  • New Mexico (2-9, 0-7 Mountain West)
  • Hawaii (3-9, 2-5 Mountain West)
  • San Jose State (6-4, 4-3 Mountain West), which has a decent record but couldn’t stop the Aggies’ running game on the road.

Speaking of the Aggies’ running game, they’ll mostly turn against the Broncos. Utah State ranks 27th in rush play rate.

Unfortunately, there wasn’t much success locally as the state of Utah ranks 108th when it comes to rush play success rate. When it comes to the passing game, things aren’t much better as the Aggies rank 105th in passing success rate.

The defense was solid when it comes to the air and ranked 25th in defensive pass success rate, but there’s not much else to write home about. Utah State ranks outside the top 75 for both defensive rushing and defensive finishing drive success rates.

I’m struggling to find anywhere where this Aggies team will have a significant advantage over the Broncos on both sides of the ball.

Much like the Aggies, Boise State had a tough start to the season. After quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal and the Broncos fired their offensive coordinator, some lost all hope.

However, it appears to be just what they needed as the Broncos have gone 6-1 since then.

BSU brought in Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator and Taylen Green became the starting quarterback. The two have since guided Boise to first place in the Mountain Division and have the second highest offense in the conference.

Boise State is in the top 5 in the conference for both passing and rushing. The Broncos’ ability to excel both in the air and on the ground makes them truly elite.

They are also among the top ranks defensively. Boise State leads the nation in defensive passing success rate and is the seventh-best team in defensive finishing drives.

Utah State vs. Boise State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the states of Utah and Boise State statistically match:

Utah State Offense vs. Boise State Defense

Boise State Offense vs. Utah State Defense

Game pace / Miscellaneous
PFF tackle 57 25
PFF cover 77 23
SP+ special teams 57 53
seconds per game 23.6 (16) 27.3 (89)
rush rate 58.6% (29) 59.0% (27)
Data from CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Utah State vs Boise State betting selection

Boise State is by far the better team and has advantages on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. When you break it down, it’s hard to see how this Utah State team can even remotely match Boise State.

Despite all this, this is still a rivalry game. It’s been extremely one-sided for most of the series, but Utah State comes into this game with a surge of confidence. There’s also the daunting 16-point spread that comes with Boise State’s support in this one.

Anyway, I think the Aggies’ wave of confidence is collapsing in Boise. The Broncos are 5-2 against the spread since Koetter and Green took their positions and are 5-1-1 in conference games.

Our Action PRO projections make Boise State an 18-point favorite and I feel comfortable backing them as high as a 17-point favorite.

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