Polls show Walker and Warnock nearly dead two weeks before runoff

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Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) has a slight advantage over Republican Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff, according to a new poll suggesting Warnock may have gained independent voters since the midterm election.

Important facts

Warnock leads Walker 51% to 47%, results that are within the poll’s 4.4-point margin of error but slightly more favorable to Warnock compared to mid-term election results when Warnock garnered 49.4% of the vote , compared to Walker’s 48.5%.

The American Association of Retired Persons commissioned the poll from policy research firm Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, which surveyed 1,183 likely Georgia voters between November 11 and 17.

More independent voters prefer Warnock, according to the poll, which shows he now has 54% support (the senator received the support of about 46% of independent voters in the midterms versus Walker’s 30%), although Walker has also seen an uptick in independents Voters since the election (39% in the new poll vs. 30% on election day).

Warnock has an advantage over Walker among black voters – 89% versus 8% – and while more white voters have moved toward Warnock since the midterm election, Walker still leads the demographic by a wide margin: 67% to Warnock’s 31 %.

Younger voters are leaning towards Warnock (61% between the ages of 18 and 49 support him, compared to 37% for Walker), while Walker leads among voters over 50 with 53% supporting him, compared to Warnock’s 44%.

Big number

84. This is the percentage of voters who said they were highly motivated to vote in the December 6th runoff. Among the Democrats surveyed, 90% said they were very motivated to vote, compared to 85% of Republicans.

key background

Walker and Warnock will face each other again on December 6 after neither candidate secured a majority of the vote in the November 8 midterm election to avoid a runoff. The race is the last Senate competition yet to be proclaimed. So far, Democrats have secured 50 seats and Republicans 49. The results in Georgia will determine whether Democrats will have an even greater advantage than the current Senate composition, which is split 50-50. If Walker wins, Democrats won’t need Vice President Kamala Harris’s casting vote to pass legislation and may have to rely less on sometimes unpredictable conservative Democratic senators, including West Virginia’s Joe Manchin or Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema. Democrats topped policy forecasts that showed the Senate tilting slightly in favor of Republicans in the final few weeks leading up to Election Day, and GOP losses have sparked internal blame games, with many prominent Republicans blaming former President Donald Trump as a candidate to support, which were defeated in several cases crucial races. Trump backed Walker in Georgia and increased his support for him when he announced his 2024 presidential bid last week.

Further reading

Walker, Warnock headed for runoff in Georgia Senate race (Forbes)

That Means Democrats Winning Senate For Next Session Of Congress (Forbes)

Ad Dollars For Georgia Senate Runoff Reach $125 Million (Forbes)

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